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Sep 16, 2025

Budget Day 2025: A cautious approach to the elections

For investors in Dutch mortgages, Budget Day has always offered important insights into the economic outlook for the coming year. This year, the outgoing cabinet presented an extremely cautious budget, which is understandable given the political uncertainty and approaching October elections. DMPM closely follows political and economic developments. While the presented plans offer limited insight into structural reforms, they provide indications of the development of purchasing power and, consequently, mortgage application capacity in 2026. What do these developments mean for an investor in Dutch residential financing?

Walter van Maurik Portfolio Manager
Erasmusbridge in Rotterdam
  • 1.3% purchasing power growth improves mortgage affordability
  • Political uncertainty limits structural policy changes until October
  • Caretaker cabinet maintains stability but major housing reforms await new coalition

     

Cautious budget plans with an eye on the upcoming elections

On Budget Day, the budget plans for the coming year were announced. Since the PVV and NSC withdrew from the cabinet earlier this year, the budget was drawn up by the caretaker cabinet consisting of the VVD and BBB. The plans seem deliberately cautious, mostly aimed at bridging the gap until the upcoming elections in October. The outcome of this election will provide greater clarity on the course the Netherlands will pursue in the coming years.

Slight increase in purchasing power: effect on mortgage affordability

Next year, Dutch citizens can expect a modest increase in purchasing power. Last summer, the estimate was around a 1 percent gain for everyone, but this has since been revised slightly upward. On average, purchasing power will rise by 1.3 percent in 2026, with retirees benefitting the most at 1.5 percent. This increase will have the effect of improving mortgage affordability in the coming year, since Dutch households will, on average, retain a bit more income in 2026. 

Expectations for the upcoming elections in October

When the budget plans were presented, no mention was made of the housing market issues or how they will be addressed. However, this remains a hot topic in the Netherlands and is high on the agenda of the political parties. Each has its own perspective and proposed measures for tackling the housing shortage and related challenges. Once the elections are held and a new cabinet is formed, we will be paying particular attention to the housing market plans and will publish our insights accordingly.

Want to know more?

For questions about this publication or about our services, feel free to reach out to Walter, the author of this article.